Classical, quantum, and general probabilistic state-discrimination profiles

For a collection of states indexed by $[n]={1,\ldots,n}$, let $F(H)$ denote the optimal unnormalized minimum discrimination error for each nonempty subfamily $H\subseteq[n]$. We call $F$ the discrimination profile and characterize exactly which profiles can arise in a general probabilistic theory (GPT). For fixed $n$, the GPT region $\mathfrak{G}_n$ is a bounded rational polytope, giving a hierarchy $\mathfrak{C}_n\subseteq\mathfrak{Q}_n\subseteq\mathfrak{G}_n$ of classical, quantum, and GPT profiles, analogous to the local--quantum--no-signalling hierarchy in Bell theory. For $n=3$ we determine the classical and GPT polytopes explicitly. Within $\mathfrak{G}_3$, the classical region is characterized by $\beta:=F(123)-F(12)-F(13)-F(23)\le0$, while the GPT maximum is $1$. For qubit triples, the maximal value is attained by the trine, $\beta_{\mathrm{tr}}=3\sqrt3/2-2$, and we prove the dimension-independent quantum bound $\beta_{\mathrm Q}\le2/3$, with a slight further improvement. Hence $0=\beta_{\mathrm C}<3\sqrt3/2-2\le\beta_{\mathrm Q}\le2/3<1=\beta_{\mathrm{GPT}}$. We conjecture $\beta_{\mathrm Q}=\beta_{\mathrm{tr}}$ and prove this for arbitrary pure-state triples, together with further supporting evidence. For arbitrary $n$, every classical facet admitting a GPT violation already admits a quantum violation in dimension at most $3$. A four-state qubit example shows that quantum success profiles need not be submodular, unlike for $n=3$. Finally, we exhibit a four-dimensional quantum triple whose discrete profile is classical for all subfamilies but becomes nonclassical when unequal priors are allowed.