Reference-Tail Trust:Certified Probability Floors for Learned Updates Inside a Deployed Network

Graph neural networks (GNNs) need to exploit improved message passing without surrendering control over predictions already trusted in deployment. We introduce Reference-Tail Trust (RTT), a framework that admits learned updates inside a frozen GNN and certifies the prediction actually served. RTT couples graph-based proposal states with a constrained internal optimizer: each displacement is charged for its worst-case terminal cross-entropy increase through the incumbent's remaining message-passing layers. A trajectory-validated tube and an independent checker enforce per-node probability floors, $p^{\mathrm{s}}_{ic} \ge e^{-H_{\mathrm{row}}} p^{\mathrm{r}}_{ic}$, and a call-level budget, $\sum_i w_i D_\infty(p^{\mathrm{r}}_i \| p^{\mathrm{s}}_i) \le H^+$, uniformly over labels. Calls whose adapted outputs pass certification require no separate full incumbent rollout; failed certificates trigger whole-call fallback. We derive the exact probability-floor frontier by water-filling, characterize architecture-constrained efficiency, and establish conditions under which internal propagation exploits evidence unavailable to restricted output correctors. In the reported ogbn-arxiv audit, RTT achieves $6.5\times 10^{-3}$ nats of mean gain per call, with a one-sided 95% regression-rate upper bound of 0.95% and a 95% negative-flip upper bound of 0.51% on the uninspected part of the reserved node population. Its mean gain is 61% of a cross-fitted posterior-based frontier estimate and exceeds the strongest matched one-pass corrector by $+0.9\times 10^{-3}$ nats. Reported experiments span eight proposals, six graph-incumbent families, structural and temporal graph shifts, and molecular prediction, with additional image and tabular evaluations. RTT makes GNN adaptation a budgeted, certifiable inference decision rather than an unconditional model replacement.